Liberal Democrat Psephologists

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Comment by Malcolm Baines on October 5, 2011 at 11:35

Has anyone in the group done some research from a Lib Dem perspective on the impact of the boundary changes on Lib Dem seats/prospects for the next General Election? I have seen some work on this from a general viewpoint including notional party gains and losses but nothing looking at the effect on the party in detail.

Comment by Richard Cole on November 23, 2010 at 19:37

Yes, no doubt we have lost support among young voters. Hardly surprising when the leadership has got things so wrong over tuition fees. However, we cant claim any long term effect and of course we need to remember that turnout amongst younger votes is low in local elections and we have no recent evidence on turnout for referenda in England. Polling evidence suggest that people do respond to debate on reasons for and against AV. A referendum on the Lib Dems? Maybe but no poll has asked that as a question as far as I know.

Frequency of polling can reflect a trend but specifically in terms of their own polls. The methodology of different companies means that to get a realistic overall view you need to look at all the companies and to adjust for frequency of polling. When you do that it is clear there is a decline in Lib Dem support but other companies do not have it as dramatic as You Gov does.

Comment by Bill Revans on November 23, 2010 at 15:25

The Guardian quotes an ICM poll this morning as showing our support lowest among young people: - "Lib Dem support is now lower among voters aged 18-24 than among any other age group. By contrast, in the final election Guardian/ICM poll Lib Dem support was highest among young voters."

I wonder why that is?...

Comment by Richard Cole on November 23, 2010 at 15:10

Note on the link to UK Polling Report posted by RF, Anthony Wells is showing all the polls he covers in those trend lines ie lots of You Gv polls. As Anthony would himself tell you frequency and accuracy of polls are not the same thing. Everyone has us down but You Goov says we are down more than any other company, possibly due to their methodology changes.

While we are clearly down significantly from the General election, we are not down much from our running average during Brown's premiership.

We should note that 1) we are getting particularly negative coverage at the moment, 2) outside of elections we often drop back and 3) trying to predict a general election result 4 years out is fun but pointless.

Local by election results have no been at all bad, especially where WE CAMPAIGN HARD. Expect results where we are not strong to be dire but what is important is our results in areas we can win. 10% swing from Conservative to Liberal democrat on Isle of Wight last week.

Comment by Malcolm Baines on November 19, 2010 at 15:57

I agree that it would be interesting to know why people who voted Lib Dem in 2010 no longer are and why those that have stuck with the party have done so. Ideally the national party should be doing this research - but I suspect it isn't.

Most people probably didn't actually vote Lib Dem for education funding - fairness though was an important part of the Lib Dem appeal hence all the emphasis on fairness in Nick Clegg etc's rhetoric.

I agree with you re the AV referendum - that's going to a very tough fight.

I still think 40+ seats is achievable if there was an election in 6 weeks. Where I disagree with you is I can't see why voters shoudl move from the Lib Dem to the Tories - given the Coalition there is no reason to do so.

Comment by Malcolm Baines on November 19, 2010 at 15:26

If you assume about 15% with Labour and the Tories roughly level but with an unwinding of Labour tactical voters of say 5% from the Lib Dems to Labour and perhaps 10% from the Tories to the Lib Dems - none of which I would think is unreasonable at the moment, then the party would be left with about 27 MPs per Martin Baxter's predictor.

In practice though if the Coalition fell apart and there was an election within say 6 weeks then the electoral dynamics would clearly be changed by that falling apart so in a sense analysing the stats now is not very helpful.

Local by-elections seem to chose a substantial Lib Dem collapse in urban areas especially outside the SE but with the party holding its own in rural and small town Britain. An alternative analysis might well therefore conclude that most of the seats the Lib Dems are defending against the Tories will be held. After all, the Coalition has removed the Tories most powerful electoral argument against the Lib Dems - that if you vote Lib Dem, you will let Labour in.

Given the derisory nature of some Lib Dem votes in local by-elections despite a national % in the low teens, it's also at least arguable that the Lib Dem vote is becoming very concentrated which will help to retain seats.

I could therefore easily see 40-45 being held at present.

Comment by Harry Hayfield on February 8, 2010 at 16:52

January 2010 Averages
Con 40.55%, Lab 27.64%, Lib Dem 19.43%, Green 3.21%, UKIP 3.11%, SNP 2.34%, BNP 2.21%, Plaid 0.80%, Others 0.70%. Lib Dem swings: 5.27% from Lib Dem to Con, 2.67% from Lab to Lib Dem

Comment by Harry Hayfield on November 28, 2009 at 11:22

Well, I thought that as psephologists are the people who make sense of the polls, it made common sense! Now, how about a few answers to the topic of "Can the Liberal Democrats outpoll Labour" up there!

Comment by Tim Hill on November 27, 2009 at 0:34

I'm known locally as Tim "Anal" Hill as I can spout election stats like there's no tomorrow.
Sad really :-)

Comment by Mat Bowles on November 26, 2009 at 18:42

There're more than that Harry, most campaigns organisers are effectively psephologists to an extent, and we need to study all the elections very carefully in order to pick exactly the right bar chart for this election ;-)

Having said that, I'm working on maps at the moment...

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